The Super Bowl for film buffs is right around the corner, with the 98th Academy Awards being hosted in Los Angeles at the Dolby Theatre on March 15.
This year, the horror film “Sinners,” directed and written by Ryan Coogler, made a notable achievement by becoming the most nominated film in Oscar’s history. Its 16 nominations beat out a record previously held between “All About Eve” (1950), “Titanic” (1997) and “La La Land” (2016), with 14 nods each.
Historically, the horror genre is severely underrepresented, with roughly 20 films (the lines are blurred when categorizing horror) winning an Oscar. These wins usually fall within Best Makeup and Hairstyling and Best Costume Design, as the horror genre often has special effects of fictional monsters, heavy gore and other fantastical or period piece elements.
The most decorated horror film in Academy Award history is the 1991 film “Silence of the Lambs,” being nominated for seven categories and taking home five awards. This included Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay, winning 71% of the awards it was nominated for.
Traditionally, these five categories together are known as the “Big Five,” in which only two other films have secured this title: “It Happened One Night” (1934) and “One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Nest” (1975).
“Sinners” joining this club is out of the picture, as it didn’t secure a nomination for Best Actress, but 16 nominations still leave the film with opportunities to either tie or beat out the record for most Oscars secured.
As of 2025, three films hold the title for most Oscars won. “Ben-Hur” (1959) won 11 out of 12 nominations, “Titanic” (1997) won 11 out of 14 nominations and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” (2003) won all 11 of its nominations. Each of these films secured 92%, 79% and 100% of their nominations, respectively.
Given these statistics, and considering the performance of “Silence of the Lambs,” the probability of “Sinners” sweeping the Oscars is considerably low. If the film were to hypothetically take home at least six awards, one more than “Silence of the Lambs,” it still would take home less than 38% of its nominations.
Furthermore, if it were to tie for the record of most Oscars secured, it still would take home 69% of its nominations, still less than the highest performing horror movie.
With the Oscars being the last big awards show for the 2025 season, “Sinners” performance in other ceremonies has been considerably lackluster. From the Golden Globes, Actors Awards, Critic’s Choice Awards and British Academy Film Awards, “Sinners” has a total average of 29% rate of success.
Now, I love “Sinners” as much as the next person. I saw it four times in theatres and twice at home, and I absolutely beg you to see it in IMAX at least once. However, the numbers and its performance thus far in other ceremonies don’t lie, and unfortunately I don’t see it magically making a “180” in two weeks and turning into a powerhouse at the Oscars.
Based on its 29% success rate at other ceremonies so far, I predict “Sinners” will take home around four Oscars, taking home Best Casting (a newly introduced category), Best Original Score and Best Original Screenplay. I’ll leave an unpredictable category open for interpretation.
Regardless of its take-home performance, however, “Sinners” has proven its monumental influence for the horror genre this awards season, and even greater Academy history. Its run has cemented the importance of the genre and its ability to provide compelling storytelling and technical filmmaking.
If you want to catch the film as intended to view and before the big day, “Sinners” is re-released in most chain theaters like Regal and AMC for awards season.