For months, citizens in countries around the world have been bombarded with warnings from governments and independent health agencies about possible avian flu outbreaks.

World Health Organization officials recently warned Asian governments that the avian flu could spread to humans if it isn’t properly contained and turn into a deadly epidemic similar to the 1918 flu, which killed more than 40 million people, according to Reuters.

A draft of the U.S. government’s plan to fight a worldwide epidemic suggested a “super flu” could kill up to 1.9 million Americans, according to USA Today.

An epidemic? Maybe for chickens.

There are several problems with the speculations circulating and the preparations being made about the potential bird flu epidemic. First, the evidence these rumors are based on is highly questionable. Second, even if an outbreak occurred, the current plans for dealing with it would be entirely ineffective.

Former director of the Office of Biotechnology at the Food and Drug Administration Dr. Henry Miller said in a Wall Street Journal editorial that the bird flu virus can jump from birds to humans and is a fatal illness in 50 percent of those infected, according to www.mercola.com.

What Miller failed to mention is the probability that only the worst cases of illnesses are being reported. If so, the percentage of reported fatalities among those who’ve contracted the virus has greatly increased. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention has acknowledged this possibility and said the full range of illness caused by the virus is not fully understood, according to its Web site. Miller and others also neglect that the transmission of avian flu has not yet been observed among humans.

By some magical extrapolation, the death of 98 people worldwide has given rise to fear of a pandemic – an interesting leap to say the least.

And what has the U.S. government been doing to prepare for the feared outbreak? It’s ordered an increase in flu vaccine production and has purchased 20 million doses of the drug Tamiflu at a cost of $2 billion, according to www.mercola.com.

The development of a bird flu vaccine may hold some promise, but we are a long way from mass producing an effective vaccine. Moreover, Tamiflu would be a wonderful strategy to combat the potential flu outbreak – if there was any research that showed it’s effective against avian flu.

Unfortunately, there isn’t.

Even worse, a leading expert on vaccines, Dr. Sherri Tenpenny, has explained that Tamiflu can actually cause the virus to mutate into a more dangerous and potent viral strain and build up viral discharge from the nose – a virulence factor that would greatly increase the spread of the disease, according to Forbes.

Dr. Joseph Mercola, an osteopathic physician and surgeon recently said in his Web site, “Unless you are a full-time bird handler in a third-world country who has a seriously challenged immune system, you probably have a much better chance of winning the lottery than dying from the proposed bird flu epidemic.”

While there is a possibility that an avian flu strain may mutate into a more infectious form that transmits more easily from bird to human or from human to human – and I certainly believe in being prepared for the worst – the science behind the speculations and government plans to deal with a bird flu epidemic is highly questionable. It really makes you wonder if the government is basing its decisions on the opinions of scientists or drug manufacturers.

If you’re still worried about bird flu, my suggestion is don’t count on the government to do anything productive for you. In the long run, you’re probably on your own.

-Ari Whitten is a kinesiology senior.

-This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of The Daily Aztec. Send e-mail to letters@thedailyaztec.com. Anonymous letters will not be printed – include your full name, major and year in school.